Our Backyard – Lorne


One of the most respected, and my favourite economic forecasters is Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans. Earlier this week Bill shared his visionary forecast of what might happen past COVID-19.

Underpinned by a couple of assumptions he expects our recession to be “deeper” but “shorter” than that of the early 90’s event, our deficit went to 4% of G.D.P. This time he estimates it will head to 12.2% of G.D.P. or $240 billion. Unemployment, he said will head to 9% in September then dropping slightly to 8.5% by years end, but will prevalent for a few years as he predicts unemployment rate of 6% at the end of 2023. He also expects wages growth to be very slow at around 1.8% for the year.

Consumer confidence was belted according to the Westpac survey. It fell by 9.5% only 5% lower than April lows. As a result Bill forecasts that lower levels of spending until stage 4 is over. In April, credit and spending was 25% lower than the same time last year. Spending was recovering but stage 4 lock downs slowed it once again.

A bit of heavy reading but years of following Bill have always delivered outcomes close to his forecasts.


With the introduction of stage 3 restrictions just over a week ago, we made the conscious decision to operate our business “behind closed doors”. Although by definition this is not a decision we were forced to make, but a decision that we believed was in the best interests of one of the best teams you could ever wish to work with, let alone the town in which I love.

Although our front door is closed, its work as usual behind the scenes and another fruitful week of sales from contracts over the proceeding month. Listening to Bill Evans and the economy slowing that statement rang true if our phone lines are any indication. In an office where the background music is usually the constant of ringing phones including mobiles, for both accommodation and sales enquiry, since stage 4 lockdown this “buzz” has been replaced by an eerie silence. A time when picking up the phone to answer the call is replaced by motivated agents picking up the phone to make a call!

Online enquiry has remained strong, but the frustration of our major market, Melbourne, being in stage 4 lockdown and not being able to come and inspect properties is teaching us all new skills.

Kind regards,
Ian Stewart
For and on behalf of the entire Great Ocean Road Real Estate team


If you’re in town for the weekend, we have many establishments looking to serve take-away menus. We’ve always got our normal take-aways that are open and to add to this MoVida, Lorne Hotel and Lorne Central are also offering quality choices.


“It is easier to do a job right than to explain why you didn’t”.


If you are searching for your lifestyle dream but you are yet to find it, make sure you register your interest with one of our team. In a fast moving market like this, there are always a number of transactions that are completed “off market” and if we know what you are looking for, you also could be provided with an “off market” opportunity – be sure to register!

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